Notes: Simple mistakes, adjusted to have clustering by state away from beginning, receive in parentheses

Notes: Simple mistakes, adjusted to have clustering by state away from beginning, receive in parentheses

Every regressions include dummy parameters having census 12 months, battle, age, state off birth, and you will cohort out-of delivery, and you will area for delivery trends. Data try aggregated to say out of birth ? season from beginning ? census seasons telephone setting in the 1st line, but in the private level to your IV regressions. Understand the notes so you can Table step 1 .


This new IV estimates mean that the latest causal negative effects of very early teenager wedding and dropout position into the coming poverty are substantial. The fresh standard quotes imply that marrying young boosts the odds an effective younger bride to be will become within the poverty later on in life of the to 29 percentage factors. Shedding away from senior school has a comparatively reduced, but still good, 11 percentage area influence on upcoming poverty. These types of email address details are sturdy to the level off aggregation, LIML quote, adjustments to own migration, and a running setting method. Anyone-height OLS prices to possess very early adolescent wedding is short, when you are aggregated OLS quotes yield a quote which is of one’s exact same magnitude while the IV prices.

To raised understand why brand new IV and you may aggregated OLS prices disagree plenty about private-level OLS estimates, I now discuss the latest part regarding dimension mistake. Within the census studies, age at first relationships try computed regarding reported go out off earliest marriage and you will day of birth (month and you can 12 months). Usually just one people fulfills on census means toward entire domestic. This is certainly gonna exacerbate aspect error as the person doing the brand new census may not have direct details about almost every other domestic members’ times out-of birth and you will basic marriage. From inside the 1970 and you will 1980, the fresh new census setting will teach individuals to “provide your absolute best guess” whenever either ones dates are “not known.” 19

Since the small fraction away from very early teen marriage ceremonies can be so short, any mismeasurement out of day off beginning or time of wedding-the 2 variables regularly build ages in the beginning wedding-sometimes trigger a highly large down bias during the the OLS guess of your own early adolescent ount regarding aspect mistake, brand new incorrectly classified teen brides can be outnumber the actual adolescent brides, ultimately causing good attenuation prejudice.

To raised see the incidence regarding dimensions mistake for the advertised schedules, consider the 1975 National Fertility Questionnaire (NFS). It was the latest fifth inside some studies used all of the 5 years to examine ily thought. The fresh new fascinating ability of your own questionnaire when you look at the 1975 is that the experts chose to reinterview a designated shot of women regarding 1970 questionnaire. The fresh new reinterview decide to try has 2,355 light women in the basic marriage ceremonies who had been continuously partnered, whose years at the matrimony is actually lower than 25 years, and you may whose husbands got recently been partnered only if. The 1975 and 1970 surveys inquire date regarding birth and you can date out of first relationship, which have both categories of answers getting registered on the 1975 attempt. Therefore because of it subset of women, I will calculate a lowered sure on misreports of the contrasting the latest exact same female’s answers over an excellent five-year date views.

Misreporting fundamentally declines once the a good female’s stated ount out-of error during the these almost every other organizations is small in comparison

Table 8 tabulates how many times the brand new responses in the 1975 questionnaire don’t satisfy the responses regarding the 1970 survey. For your try, schedules of delivery don’t consent 4% of the time, and you will schedules out of wedding do not concur several% of time. The result is you to an excellent female’s many years at the marriage mentioned inside the ages cannot line-up getting 11% of your own findings regarding the decide to try. Mismatch rates are reported during the Desk 8 having groupings based towards an effective woman’s advertised relationship ages from the 1970 questionnaire. For those marrying at or below the ages of 15 in the the latest 1970 survey, 8% off beginning schedules and you will thirty five% regarding matrimony times don’t make around the questionnaire decades. For it classification, 39% of your own suggested relationships many years differ along the studies. The degree of dimensions error about census sometimes end up being actually huge since the 1975 NFS tested just women who got never ever separated along with girls respond to questions about themselves.